Primorac Biograd 0–0 NK Zadar: Result & Stats

Primorac Biograd

FT

0 – 0

NK Zadar

3/7/2020

Third NL - Jug · South - 18Gradski stadion Kazimir i Silvio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Primorac Biograd49%

×Draw24%

NK Zadar27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Primorac BiogradExpected goals in this matchNK Zadar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.18

Primorac Biograd

1.69

NK Zadar

1.18

Primorac Biograd creates 43% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 9 away

1.72

creates per match

1.11

1.25

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Primorac Biograd

1.72

NK Zadar

1.11

allows per match

Primorac Biograd

1.25

NK Zadar

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Primorac Biograd+0.00on par

NK Zadar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Primorac Biograd ↓

NK Zadar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Primorac Biograd or draw

73%

Primorac Biograd or NK Zadar

76%

Draw or NK Zadar

51%

Winning margin

Primorac Biograd wins by 2+

26%

NK Zadar wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Primorac Biograd 1+ goals

82%

Primorac Biograd 2+ goals

50%

Primorac Biograd 3+ goals

24%

NK Zadar 1+ goals

69%

NK Zadar 2+ goals

33%

NK Zadar 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Primorac Biograd (draw refunded)

65%

NK Zadar (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Primorac Biograd at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.25 · 102 matches

NK Zadar away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Primorac Biograd attack 1.72 + NK Zadar defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

NK Zadar attack 1.11 + Primorac Biograd defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Primorac Biograd scores more

49%

level

24%

NK Zadar scores more

27%

Primorac Biograd at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Primorac Biograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff