NK Zadar 3–0 Primorac Biograd: Result & Stats

NK Zadar

FT

3 – 0

Primorac Biograd

9/14/2019

Third NL - Jug · South - 3Stadion Stanovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

NK Zadar57%

×Draw22%

Primorac Biograd21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK ZadarExpected goals in this matchPrimorac Biograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.07

NK Zadar

1.94

Primorac Biograd

1.07

NK Zadar creates 81% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 102 away

2.11

creates per match

1.03

1.11

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

NK Zadar

2.11

Primorac Biograd

1.03

allows per match

NK Zadar

1.11

Primorac Biograd

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Zadar+0.00on par

Primorac Biograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Zadar ↓

Primorac Biograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

NK Zadar or draw

79%

NK Zadar or Primorac Biograd

78%

Draw or Primorac Biograd

43%

Winning margin

NK Zadar wins by 2+

34%

Primorac Biograd wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

NK Zadar 1+ goals

86%

NK Zadar 2+ goals

58%

NK Zadar 3+ goals

30%

Primorac Biograd 1+ goals

66%

Primorac Biograd 2+ goals

29%

Primorac Biograd 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

NK Zadar (draw refunded)

74%

Primorac Biograd (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Zadar at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Primorac Biograd away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.78 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Zadar attack 2.11 + Primorac Biograd defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.94

Primorac Biograd attack 1.03 + NK Zadar defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

NK Zadar scores more

57%

level

22%

Primorac Biograd scores more

21%

NK Zadar at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "NK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff