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Primorac Biograd vs Kamen Ivanbegovina — Third NL - Jug 2019

Primorac Biograd
Primorac Biograd
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Kamen Ivanbegovina
Kamen Ivanbegovina
11/9/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 12Gradski stadion Kazimir i Silvio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Primorac Biograd64%
×Draw20%
Kamen Ivanbegovina16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Primorac Biograd
2.21
Kamen Ivanbegovina
1.02

Primorac Biograd creates 117% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

creates per match

Primorac Biograd
1.72
Kamen Ivanbegovina
0.80

allows per match

Primorac Biograd
1.25
Kamen Ivanbegovina
2.71

finishing

Primorac Biograd+0.00on par
Kamen Ivanbegovina+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Primorac Biograd ↓

Kamen Ivanbegovina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Primorac Biograd or draw
84%
Primorac Biograd or Kamen Ivanbegovina
80%
Draw or Kamen Ivanbegovina
36%

Winning margin

Primorac Biograd wins by 2+
41%
Kamen Ivanbegovina wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Primorac Biograd 1+ goals
89%
Primorac Biograd 2+ goals
65%
Primorac Biograd 3+ goals
38%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 1+ goals
64%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 2+ goals
27%
Kamen Ivanbegovina 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Primorac Biograd (draw refunded)
80%
Kamen Ivanbegovina (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Primorac Biograd at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.25 · 102 matches

Kamen Ivanbegovina away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.71 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Primorac Biograd attack 1.72 + Kamen Ivanbegovina defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.21

Kamen Ivanbegovina attack 0.80 + Primorac Biograd defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Primorac Biograd scores more
64%
level
20%
Kamen Ivanbegovina scores more
16%

Primorac Biograd at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Primorac Biograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Primorac Biograd 3–1 Kamen Ivanbegovina

Primorac Biograd beat Kamen Ivanbegovina 3-1 in Third NL - Jug on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Kazimir i Silvio in Biograd na Moru.