Kamen Ivanbegovina 1–0 Primorac Biograd

Kamen Ivanbegovina

FT

1 – 0

Primorac Biograd

5/4/2024

Third NL - Jug · South - 27Igralište NK Kamen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Kamen Ivanbegovina51%

×Draw24%

Primorac Biograd25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kamen IvanbegovinaExpected goals in this matchPrimorac Biograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.16

Kamen Ivanbegovina

1.75

Primorac Biograd

1.16

Kamen Ivanbegovina creates 51% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

1.72

creates per match

1.03

1.28

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Kamen Ivanbegovina

1.72

Primorac Biograd

1.03

allows per match

Kamen Ivanbegovina

1.28

Primorac Biograd

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kamen Ivanbegovina+0.00on par

Primorac Biograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamen Ivanbegovina ↓

Primorac Biograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kamen Ivanbegovina or draw

75%

Kamen Ivanbegovina or Primorac Biograd

76%

Draw or Primorac Biograd

49%

Winning margin

Kamen Ivanbegovina wins by 2+

28%

Primorac Biograd wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kamen Ivanbegovina 1+ goals

83%

Kamen Ivanbegovina 2+ goals

52%

Kamen Ivanbegovina 3+ goals

25%

Primorac Biograd 1+ goals

69%

Primorac Biograd 2+ goals

32%

Primorac Biograd 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kamen Ivanbegovina (draw refunded)

67%

Primorac Biograd (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamen Ivanbegovina at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.28 · 102 matches

Primorac Biograd away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.78 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamen Ivanbegovina attack 1.72 + Primorac Biograd defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.75

Primorac Biograd attack 1.03 + Kamen Ivanbegovina defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kamen Ivanbegovina scores more

51%

level

24%

Primorac Biograd scores more

25%

Kamen Ivanbegovina at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kamen Ivanbegovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff