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Primorac Biograd vs HNK Hajduk Split II — Third NL - Jug 2019

Primorac Biograd
Primorac Biograd
FT
1 – 2
HNK Hajduk Split II
HNK Hajduk Split II
4/17/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 24Gradski stadion Kazimir i Silvio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Primorac Biograd68%
×Draw18%
HNK Hajduk Split II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Primorac Biograd
2.40
HNK Hajduk Split II
1.02

Primorac Biograd creates 135% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 15 away

creates per match

Primorac Biograd
1.72
HNK Hajduk Split II
0.80

allows per match

Primorac Biograd
1.25
HNK Hajduk Split II
3.07

finishing

Primorac Biograd+0.00on par
HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Primorac Biograd ↓

HNK Hajduk Split II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Primorac Biograd or draw
85%
Primorac Biograd or HNK Hajduk Split II
82%
Draw or HNK Hajduk Split II
32%

Winning margin

Primorac Biograd wins by 2+
45%
HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Primorac Biograd 1+ goals
91%
Primorac Biograd 2+ goals
69%
Primorac Biograd 3+ goals
42%
HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals
64%
HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals
27%
HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Primorac Biograd (draw refunded)
82%
HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Primorac Biograd at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.25 · 102 matches

HNK Hajduk Split II away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Primorac Biograd attack 1.72 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.40

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 0.80 + Primorac Biograd defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Primorac Biograd scores more
68%
level
18%
HNK Hajduk Split II scores more
15%

Primorac Biograd at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Primorac Biograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Primorac Biograd vs HNK Hajduk Split II

HNK Hajduk Split II beat Primorac Biograd 2-1 in Third NL - Jug on April 17, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Kazimir i Silvio in Biograd na Moru.