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HNK Hajduk Split II vs Primorac Biograd — Third NL - Jug 2019

HNK Hajduk Split II
HNK Hajduk Split II
FT
1 – 1
Primorac Biograd
Primorac Biograd
10/14/2023Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 9Stadion Park mladeži

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

HNK Hajduk Split II46%
×Draw24%
Primorac Biograd30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Hajduk Split II
1.69
Primorac Biograd
1.31

HNK Hajduk Split II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 102 away

creates per match

HNK Hajduk Split II
1.60
Primorac Biograd
1.03

allows per match

HNK Hajduk Split II
1.60
Primorac Biograd
1.78

finishing

HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par
Primorac Biograd+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Hajduk Split II ↓

Primorac Biograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

HNK Hajduk Split II or draw
70%
HNK Hajduk Split II or Primorac Biograd
76%
Draw or Primorac Biograd
54%

Winning margin

HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+
24%
Primorac Biograd wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals
82%
HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals
50%
HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals
24%
Primorac Biograd 1+ goals
73%
Primorac Biograd 2+ goals
38%
Primorac Biograd 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)
61%
Primorac Biograd (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Hajduk Split II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Primorac Biograd away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.78 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 1.60 + Primorac Biograd defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.69

Primorac Biograd attack 1.03 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

HNK Hajduk Split II scores more
46%
level
24%
Primorac Biograd scores more
30%

HNK Hajduk Split II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HNK Hajduk Split II vs Primorac Biograd

HNK Hajduk Split II and Primorac Biograd drew 1-1 in Third NL - Jug on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Park mladeži in Split.