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Pride of Gall Hill vs Weymouth Wales — Premier League 2026

Pride of Gall Hill
Pride of Gall Hill
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Weymouth Wales
Weymouth Wales
5/4/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Ellerton Playing Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Pride of Gall Hill31%
×Draw28%
Weymouth Wales41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pride of Gall Hill
1.06
Weymouth Wales
1.27

Weymouth Wales creates 20% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Pride of Gall Hill
1.33
Weymouth Wales
1.20

allows per match

Pride of Gall Hill
1.33
Weymouth Wales
0.80

finishing

Pride of Gall Hill+0.00on par
Weymouth Wales+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pride of Gall Hill ↓

Weymouth Wales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Pride of Gall Hill or draw
59%
Pride of Gall Hill or Weymouth Wales
72%
Draw or Weymouth Wales
69%

Winning margin

Pride of Gall Hill wins by 2+
12%
Weymouth Wales wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Pride of Gall Hill 1+ goals
65%
Pride of Gall Hill 2+ goals
29%
Pride of Gall Hill 3+ goals
9%
Weymouth Wales 1+ goals
72%
Weymouth Wales 2+ goals
36%
Weymouth Wales 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pride of Gall Hill (draw refunded)
43%
Weymouth Wales (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pride of Gall Hill at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Weymouth Wales away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pride of Gall Hill attack 1.33 + Weymouth Wales defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Weymouth Wales attack 1.20 + Pride of Gall Hill defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pride of Gall Hill scores more
31%
level
28%
Weymouth Wales scores more
41%

Weymouth Wales at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Weymouth Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Pride of Gall Hill 3–2 Weymouth Wales

Pride of Gall Hill beat Weymouth Wales 3-2 in Premier League on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Ellerton Playing Field in Ellerton.