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Pride of Gall Hill vs Ellerton — Premier League 2024

Pride of Gall Hill
Pride of Gall Hill
FT
2 – 2
Ellerton
Ellerton
2/2/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Pride of Gall Hill37%
×Draw24%
Ellerton39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pride of Gall Hill
1.49
Ellerton
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

creates per match

Pride of Gall Hill
1.74
Ellerton
1.81

allows per match

Pride of Gall Hill
1.26
Ellerton
1.24

finishing

Pride of Gall Hill+0.00on par
Ellerton+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pride of Gall Hill ↓

Ellerton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Pride of Gall Hill or draw
61%
Pride of Gall Hill or Ellerton
76%
Draw or Ellerton
63%

Winning margin

Pride of Gall Hill wins by 2+
17%
Ellerton wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Pride of Gall Hill 1+ goals
77%
Pride of Gall Hill 2+ goals
44%
Pride of Gall Hill 3+ goals
19%
Ellerton 1+ goals
79%
Ellerton 2+ goals
45%
Ellerton 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Pride of Gall Hill (draw refunded)
49%
Ellerton (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pride of Gall Hill at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Ellerton away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pride of Gall Hill attack 1.74 + Ellerton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.49

Ellerton attack 1.81 + Pride of Gall Hill defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pride of Gall Hill scores more
37%
level
24%
Ellerton scores more
39%

Ellerton at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ellerton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Pride of Gall Hill 2–2 Ellerton

Pride of Gall Hill and Ellerton drew 2-2 in Premier League on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.