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Ellerton vs Pride of Gall Hill — Premier League 2024

Ellerton
Ellerton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Pride of Gall Hill
Pride of Gall Hill
4/6/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Ellerton55%
×Draw22%
Pride of Gall Hill23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ellerton
1.92
Pride of Gall Hill
1.15

Ellerton creates 67% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 21 away

creates per match

Ellerton
2.09
Pride of Gall Hill
0.90

allows per match

Ellerton
1.39
Pride of Gall Hill
1.76

finishing

Ellerton+0.00on par
Pride of Gall Hill+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ellerton ↓

Pride of Gall Hill →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ellerton or draw
77%
Ellerton or Pride of Gall Hill
78%
Draw or Pride of Gall Hill
45%

Winning margin

Ellerton wins by 2+
32%
Pride of Gall Hill wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ellerton 1+ goals
85%
Ellerton 2+ goals
57%
Ellerton 3+ goals
30%
Pride of Gall Hill 1+ goals
68%
Pride of Gall Hill 2+ goals
32%
Pride of Gall Hill 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ellerton (draw refunded)
71%
Pride of Gall Hill (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ellerton at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Pride of Gall Hill away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ellerton attack 2.09 + Pride of Gall Hill defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.92

Pride of Gall Hill attack 0.90 + Ellerton defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ellerton scores more
55%
level
22%
Pride of Gall Hill scores more
23%

Ellerton at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ellerton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ellerton vs Pride of Gall Hill

Ellerton and Pride of Gall Hill drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.