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Pride of Gall Hill vs Bagatelle — Premier League 2024

Pride of Gall Hill
Pride of Gall Hill
FT
2 – 1
Bagatelle
Bagatelle
5/19/2012Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Barbados National Stadium (Bridgetown)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Pride of Gall Hill54%
×Draw23%
Bagatelle23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pride of Gall Hill
1.83
Bagatelle
1.13

Pride of Gall Hill creates 62% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

creates per match

Pride of Gall Hill
1.74
Bagatelle
1.00

allows per match

Pride of Gall Hill
1.26
Bagatelle
1.93

finishing

Pride of Gall Hill+0.00on par
Bagatelle+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pride of Gall Hill ↓

Bagatelle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Pride of Gall Hill or draw
77%
Pride of Gall Hill or Bagatelle
77%
Draw or Bagatelle
46%

Winning margin

Pride of Gall Hill wins by 2+
30%
Bagatelle wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Pride of Gall Hill 1+ goals
84%
Pride of Gall Hill 2+ goals
54%
Pride of Gall Hill 3+ goals
28%
Bagatelle 1+ goals
68%
Bagatelle 2+ goals
31%
Bagatelle 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pride of Gall Hill (draw refunded)
70%
Bagatelle (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pride of Gall Hill at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Bagatelle away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pride of Gall Hill attack 1.74 + Bagatelle defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.83

Bagatelle attack 1.00 + Pride of Gall Hill defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Pride of Gall Hill scores more
54%
level
23%
Bagatelle scores more
23%

Pride of Gall Hill at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Pride of Gall Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Pride of Gall Hill 2–1 Bagatelle

Pride of Gall Hill beat Bagatelle 2-1 in Premier League on May 19, 2012.

The match was played at Barbados National Stadium (Bridgetown).