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Bagatelle vs Pride of Gall Hill — Premier League 2024

Bagatelle
Bagatelle
FT
1 – 0
Pride of Gall Hill
Pride of Gall Hill
3/10/2012Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Barbados National Stadium (Bridgetown)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Bagatelle39%
×Draw27%
Pride of Gall Hill33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bagatelle
1.28
Pride of Gall Hill
1.15

Bagatelle creates 11% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 21 away

creates per match

Bagatelle
0.80
Pride of Gall Hill
0.90

allows per match

Bagatelle
1.40
Pride of Gall Hill
1.76

finishing

Bagatelle+0.00on par
Pride of Gall Hill+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bagatelle ↓

Pride of Gall Hill →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bagatelle or draw
67%
Bagatelle or Pride of Gall Hill
73%
Draw or Pride of Gall Hill
61%

Winning margin

Bagatelle wins by 2+
18%
Pride of Gall Hill wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bagatelle 1+ goals
72%
Bagatelle 2+ goals
37%
Bagatelle 3+ goals
14%
Pride of Gall Hill 1+ goals
68%
Pride of Gall Hill 2+ goals
32%
Pride of Gall Hill 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bagatelle (draw refunded)
54%
Pride of Gall Hill (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bagatelle at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Pride of Gall Hill away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bagatelle attack 0.80 + Pride of Gall Hill defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.28

Pride of Gall Hill attack 0.90 + Bagatelle defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bagatelle scores more
39%
level
27%
Pride of Gall Hill scores more
33%

Bagatelle at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bagatelle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bagatelle 1–0 Pride of Gall Hill

Bagatelle beat Pride of Gall Hill 1-0 in Premier League on March 10, 2012.

The match was played at Barbados National Stadium (Bridgetown).