Příbram U19 4–3 Mladá Boleslav U19: Result & Stats

Příbram U19

FT

4 – 3

Mladá Boleslav U19

10/28/2021

1. Liga U19 · Round 14Na Litavce UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Příbram U1924%

×Draw20%

Mladá Boleslav U1956%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Příbram U19Expected goals in this matchMladá Boleslav U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

2.30

Příbram U19

1.46

Mladá Boleslav U19

2.30

Mladá Boleslav U19 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 79 away

0.88

creates per match

1.48

3.12

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Příbram U19

0.88

Mladá Boleslav U19

1.48

allows per match

Příbram U19

3.12

Mladá Boleslav U19

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Příbram U19+0.00on par

Mladá Boleslav U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Příbram U19 ↓

Mladá Boleslav U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Příbram U19 or draw

44%

Příbram U19 or Mladá Boleslav U19

80%

Draw or Mladá Boleslav U19

76%

Winning margin

Příbram U19 wins by 2+

11%

Mladá Boleslav U19 wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Příbram U19 1+ goals

77%

Příbram U19 2+ goals

43%

Příbram U19 3+ goals

18%

Mladá Boleslav U19 1+ goals

90%

Mladá Boleslav U19 2+ goals

67%

Mladá Boleslav U19 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Příbram U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Mladá Boleslav U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Příbram U19 at home — creates 0.88, concedes 3.12 · 34 matches

Mladá Boleslav U19 away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.04 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Příbram U19 attack 0.88 + Mladá Boleslav U19 defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.46

Mladá Boleslav U19 attack 1.48 + Příbram U19 defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Příbram U19 scores more

24%

level

20%

Mladá Boleslav U19 scores more

56%

Mladá Boleslav U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mladá Boleslav U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff