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Mladá Boleslav U19 vs Příbram U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Mladá Boleslav U19
Mladá Boleslav U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Příbram U19
Příbram U19
2/26/20221. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 29UMT 9.ŽŠ Pastelka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Mladá Boleslav U1975%
×Draw14%
Příbram U1911%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladá Boleslav U19
3.10
Příbram U19
1.17

Mladá Boleslav U19 creates 165% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 33 away

creates per match

Mladá Boleslav U19
1.97
Příbram U19
0.85

allows per match

Mladá Boleslav U19
1.49
Příbram U19
4.24

finishing

Mladá Boleslav U19+0.00on par
Příbram U19+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladá Boleslav U19 ↓

Příbram U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Mladá Boleslav U19 or draw
89%
Mladá Boleslav U19 or Příbram U19
86%
Draw or Příbram U19
25%

Winning margin

Mladá Boleslav U19 wins by 2+
55%
Příbram U19 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mladá Boleslav U19 1+ goals
95%
Mladá Boleslav U19 2+ goals
81%
Mladá Boleslav U19 3+ goals
58%
Příbram U19 1+ goals
69%
Příbram U19 2+ goals
33%
Příbram U19 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mladá Boleslav U19 (draw refunded)
87%
Příbram U19 (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladá Boleslav U19 at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.49 · 78 matches

Příbram U19 away — creates 0.85, concedes 4.24 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladá Boleslav U19 attack 1.97 + Příbram U19 defence 4.24 → ÷2 → 3.10

Příbram U19 attack 0.85 + Mladá Boleslav U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Mladá Boleslav U19 scores more
75%
level
14%
Příbram U19 scores more
11%

Mladá Boleslav U19 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Mladá Boleslav U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladá Boleslav U19 vs Příbram U19

Mladá Boleslav U19 beat Příbram U19 2-0 in 1. Liga U19 on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at UMT 9.ŽŠ Pastelka in Mladá Boleslav.