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Příbram U19 vs České Budějovice U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Příbram U19
Příbram U19
CANC
09:00
České Budějovice U19
České Budějovice U19
5/29/20211. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 26Na Litavce UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Příbram U1923%
×Draw19%
České Budějovice U1958%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Příbram U19
1.51
České Budějovice U19
2.45

České Budějovice U19 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 80 away

creates per match

Příbram U19
0.88
České Budějovice U19
1.77

allows per match

Příbram U19
3.12
České Budějovice U19
2.15

finishing

Příbram U19+0.00on par
České Budějovice U19+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Příbram U19 ↓

České Budějovice U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Příbram U19 or draw
42%
Příbram U19 or České Budějovice U19
81%
Draw or České Budějovice U19
77%

Winning margin

Příbram U19 wins by 2+
10%
České Budějovice U19 wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Příbram U19 1+ goals
78%
Příbram U19 2+ goals
44%
Příbram U19 3+ goals
19%
České Budějovice U19 1+ goals
91%
České Budějovice U19 2+ goals
70%
České Budějovice U19 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Příbram U19 (draw refunded)
29%
České Budějovice U19 (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Příbram U19 at home — creates 0.88, concedes 3.12 · 34 matches

České Budějovice U19 away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.15 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Příbram U19 attack 0.88 + České Budějovice U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.51

České Budějovice U19 attack 1.77 + Příbram U19 defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Příbram U19 scores more
23%
level
19%
České Budějovice U19 scores more
58%

České Budějovice U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "České Budějovice U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Příbram U19 face České Budějovice U19 (1. Liga U19)

1. Liga U19 returns with Příbram U19 hosting České Budějovice U19. Match starts May 29, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Příbram U19 host České Budějovice U19 at Na Litavce UMT.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.