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České Budějovice U19 vs Příbram U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

České Budějovice U19
České Budějovice U19
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Příbram U19
Příbram U19
V. Hora 72', 33' (pen), 11'
L. Macak 41'
J. Stepanek 20'
10/15/20221. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 11SCM Složiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

České Budějovice U1974%
×Draw14%
Příbram U1912%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

České Budějovice U19
3.15
Příbram U19
1.26

České Budějovice U19 creates 150% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 33 away

creates per match

České Budějovice U19
2.06
Příbram U19
0.85

allows per match

České Budějovice U19
1.68
Příbram U19
4.24

finishing

České Budějovice U19+0.00on par
Příbram U19+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice U19 ↓

Příbram U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

České Budějovice U19 or draw
88%
České Budějovice U19 or Příbram U19
86%
Draw or Příbram U19
26%

Winning margin

České Budějovice U19 wins by 2+
54%
Příbram U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

České Budějovice U19 1+ goals
96%
České Budějovice U19 2+ goals
81%
České Budějovice U19 3+ goals
59%
Příbram U19 1+ goals
72%
Příbram U19 2+ goals
36%
Příbram U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice U19 (draw refunded)
86%
Příbram U19 (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice U19 at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.68 · 78 matches

Příbram U19 away — creates 0.85, concedes 4.24 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice U19 attack 2.06 + Příbram U19 defence 4.24 → ÷2 → 3.15

Příbram U19 attack 0.85 + České Budějovice U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

České Budějovice U19 scores more
74%
level
14%
Příbram U19 scores more
12%

České Budějovice U19 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "České Budějovice U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
V. Hora
20'
J. Stepanek
33'
V. HoraPenalty
41'
L. Macak
72'
V. Hora

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: České Budějovice U19 vs Příbram U19

České Budějovice U19 beat Příbram U19 4-1 in 1. Liga U19 on October 15, 2022.

Goals: V. Hora (11', 33' pen, 72'), J. Stepanek (20'), L. Macak (41').

The match was played at SCM Složiště in České Budějovice.