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Příbram U19 vs Baník Ostrava U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Příbram U19
Příbram U19
FT
1 – 1
Baník Ostrava U19
Baník Ostrava U19
J. Zabransky 19'
M. Bitta 54'
9/18/20211. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 8Na Litavce UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Příbram U1918%
×Draw18%
Baník Ostrava U1964%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Příbram U19
1.24
Baník Ostrava U19
2.46

Baník Ostrava U19 creates 98% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 77 away

creates per match

Příbram U19
0.88
Baník Ostrava U19
1.81

allows per match

Příbram U19
3.12
Baník Ostrava U19
1.60

finishing

Příbram U19+0.00on par
Baník Ostrava U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Příbram U19 ↓

Baník Ostrava U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Příbram U19 or draw
36%
Příbram U19 or Baník Ostrava U19
82%
Draw or Baník Ostrava U19
82%

Winning margin

Příbram U19 wins by 2+
7%
Baník Ostrava U19 wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Příbram U19 1+ goals
71%
Příbram U19 2+ goals
35%
Příbram U19 3+ goals
13%
Baník Ostrava U19 1+ goals
91%
Baník Ostrava U19 2+ goals
70%
Baník Ostrava U19 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Příbram U19 (draw refunded)
22%
Baník Ostrava U19 (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Příbram U19 at home — creates 0.88, concedes 3.12 · 34 matches

Baník Ostrava U19 away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.60 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Příbram U19 attack 0.88 + Baník Ostrava U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.24

Baník Ostrava U19 attack 1.81 + Příbram U19 defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Příbram U19 scores more
18%
level
18%
Baník Ostrava U19 scores more
64%

Baník Ostrava U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Baník Ostrava U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
J. Zabransky
54'
54'
M. Bitta

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Příbram U19 1–1 Baník Ostrava U19

Příbram U19 and Baník Ostrava U19 drew 1-1 in 1. Liga U19 on September 18, 2021.

Goals: J. Zabransky (19'), M. Bitta (54').

The match was played at Na Litavce UMT in Příbram.