Baník Ostrava U19 5–0 Příbram U19: Result & Stats

Baník Ostrava U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Příbram U19

5/6/2023

1. Liga U19 · Round 25Areál SC Vista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Baník Ostrava U1980%

×Draw12%

Příbram U198%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník Ostrava U19Expected goals in this matchPříbram U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.31

1.03

Baník Ostrava U19

3.31

Příbram U19

1.03

Baník Ostrava U19 creates 221% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 33 away

2.37

creates per match

0.85

1.22

allows per match

4.24

creates per match

Baník Ostrava U19

2.37

Příbram U19

0.85

allows per match

Baník Ostrava U19

1.22

Příbram U19

4.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baník Ostrava U19+0.00on par

Příbram U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava U19 ↓

Příbram U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–19%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava U19 or draw

92%

Baník Ostrava U19 or Příbram U19

88%

Draw or Příbram U19

20%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava U19 wins by 2+

61%

Příbram U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava U19 1+ goals

96%

Baník Ostrava U19 2+ goals

83%

Baník Ostrava U19 3+ goals

62%

Příbram U19 1+ goals

64%

Příbram U19 2+ goals

28%

Příbram U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava U19 (draw refunded)

91%

Příbram U19 (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.22 · 79 matches

Příbram U19 away — creates 0.85, concedes 4.24 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava U19 attack 2.37 + Příbram U19 defence 4.24 → ÷2 → 3.31

Příbram U19 attack 0.85 + Baník Ostrava U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Baník Ostrava U19 scores more

80%

level

12%

Příbram U19 scores more

8%

Baník Ostrava U19 at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Baník Ostrava U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff