Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Příbram II vs Klatovy — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Příbram II
Příbram II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Klatovy
Klatovy
9/30/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 9Na Litavce UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Příbram II49%
×Draw22%
Klatovy29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Příbram II
1.93
Klatovy
1.46

Příbram II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 52 away

creates per match

Příbram II
1.62
Klatovy
1.44

allows per match

Příbram II
1.47
Klatovy
2.23

finishing

Příbram II+0.00on par
Klatovy+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Příbram II ↓

Klatovy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Příbram II or draw
71%
Příbram II or Klatovy
78%
Draw or Klatovy
51%

Winning margin

Příbram II wins by 2+
27%
Klatovy wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Příbram II 1+ goals
85%
Příbram II 2+ goals
57%
Příbram II 3+ goals
30%
Klatovy 1+ goals
77%
Klatovy 2+ goals
43%
Klatovy 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Příbram II (draw refunded)
62%
Klatovy (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Příbram II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

Klatovy away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.23 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Příbram II attack 1.62 + Klatovy defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.93

Klatovy attack 1.44 + Příbram II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Příbram II scores more
49%
level
22%
Klatovy scores more
29%

Příbram II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Příbram II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Příbram II vs Klatovy

Příbram II beat Klatovy 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Na Litavce UMT in Příbram.