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Klatovy vs Příbram II — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Klatovy
Klatovy
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Příbram II
Příbram II
8/6/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 1Stadion Na Rozvoji

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Klatovy48%
×Draw21%
Příbram II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Klatovy
2.11
Příbram II
1.67

Klatovy creates 26% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 45 away

creates per match

Klatovy
1.89
Příbram II
1.80

allows per match

Klatovy
1.53
Příbram II
2.33

finishing

Klatovy+0.00on par
Příbram II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Klatovy ↓

Příbram II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Klatovy or draw
69%
Klatovy or Příbram II
79%
Draw or Příbram II
52%

Winning margin

Klatovy wins by 2+
28%
Příbram II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Klatovy 1+ goals
88%
Klatovy 2+ goals
62%
Klatovy 3+ goals
35%
Příbram II 1+ goals
81%
Příbram II 2+ goals
50%
Příbram II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Klatovy (draw refunded)
61%
Příbram II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Klatovy at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.53 · 57 matches

Příbram II away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Klatovy attack 1.89 + Příbram II defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.11

Příbram II attack 1.80 + Klatovy defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Klatovy scores more
48%
level
21%
Příbram II scores more
31%

Klatovy at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Klatovy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Klatovy vs Příbram II

Příbram II beat Klatovy 5-2 in 4. liga - Divizie A on August 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Na Rozvoji in Klatovy.