Preussen Munster 2–0 Jahn Regensburg

Preussen Munster

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jahn Regensburg

10/15/2011

League #80 · Round 13Preußen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Preussen Munster45%

×Draw26%

Jahn Regensburg28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preussen MunsterExpected goals in this matchJahn Regensburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.08

Preussen Munster

1.44

Jahn Regensburg

1.08

Preussen Munster creates 33% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 12 away

1.54

creates per match

1.00

1.17

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Preussen Munster

1.54

Jahn Regensburg

1.00

allows per match

Preussen Munster

1.17

Jahn Regensburg

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preussen Munster+0.00on par

Jahn Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preussen Munster ↓

Jahn Regensburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Preussen Munster or draw

72%

Preussen Munster or Jahn Regensburg

74%

Draw or Jahn Regensburg

55%

Winning margin

Preussen Munster wins by 2+

22%

Jahn Regensburg wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Preussen Munster 1+ goals

76%

Preussen Munster 2+ goals

42%

Preussen Munster 3+ goals

18%

Jahn Regensburg 1+ goals

66%

Jahn Regensburg 2+ goals

29%

Jahn Regensburg 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Preussen Munster (draw refunded)

62%

Jahn Regensburg (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preussen Munster at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

Jahn Regensburg away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preussen Munster attack 1.54 + Jahn Regensburg defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.44

Jahn Regensburg attack 1.00 + Preussen Munster defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Preussen Munster scores more

45%

level

26%

Jahn Regensburg scores more

28%

Preussen Munster at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Preussen Munster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff