Preußen Münster vs SSV Jahn Regensburg — 2. Bundesliga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 34+ matches
Preußen Münster45%
SSV Jahn Regensburg30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Preußen Münster creates 26% more chances
Season form · 34 home / 103 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Preußen Münster ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Preußen Münster at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches
SSV Jahn Regensburg away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.91 · 103 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + SSV Jahn Regensburg defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.53
SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.15 + Preußen Münster defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Preußen Münster at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Preußen Münster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
FC Schalke 04
SV Elversberg
SC Paderborn 07
Hannover 96
SV Darmstadt 98
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Hertha BSC
1. FC Nürnberg
VfL Bochum
Karlsruher SC
Dynamo Dresden
Holstein Kiel
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Arminia Bielefeld
1. FC Magdeburg
Eintracht Braunschweig
Fortuna DüsseldorfPreußen Münster
Rot-Weiß EssenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Preußen Münster host SSV Jahn Regensburg on Saturday, 22 February 2025 at 12:00. The match is part of the 2. Bundesliga 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Preußen Münster vs SSV Jahn Regensburg
Preußen Münster beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-0 in 2. Bundesliga on February 22, 2025.
The match was played at Preußen-Stadion in Münster.