Jahn Regensburg 2–1 Preussen Munster

Jahn Regensburg

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Preussen Munster

D. Kother 90+2', 57'

S. Scherder 90+6'

10/28/2023

League #80 · Round 13Jahnstadion Regensburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Jahn Regensburg45%

×Draw27%

Preussen Munster28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jahn RegensburgExpected goals in this matchPreussen Munster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.05

Jahn Regensburg

1.42

Preussen Munster

1.05

Jahn Regensburg creates 35% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 21 away

1.17

creates per match

0.86

1.25

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Jahn Regensburg

1.17

Preussen Munster

0.86

allows per match

Jahn Regensburg

1.25

Preussen Munster

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jahn Regensburg+0.00on par

Preussen Munster+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jahn Regensburg ↓

Preussen Munster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Jahn Regensburg or draw

72%

Jahn Regensburg or Preussen Munster

73%

Draw or Preussen Munster

55%

Winning margin

Jahn Regensburg wins by 2+

22%

Preussen Munster wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Jahn Regensburg 1+ goals

76%

Jahn Regensburg 2+ goals

41%

Jahn Regensburg 3+ goals

17%

Preussen Munster 1+ goals

65%

Preussen Munster 2+ goals

28%

Preussen Munster 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Jahn Regensburg (draw refunded)

62%

Preussen Munster (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jahn Regensburg at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Preussen Munster away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jahn Regensburg attack 1.17 + Preussen Munster defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Preussen Munster attack 0.86 + Jahn Regensburg defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jahn Regensburg scores more

45%

level

27%

Preussen Munster scores more

28%

Jahn Regensburg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jahn Regensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Y. Bouchama← S. Mrowca

29'

Niko Koulis

57'

D. Kother↳ C. Viet

61'

E. Huth← N. Ganaus

62'

T. Eisenhuth← A. Geipl

62'

A. Diawusie← B. Hein

65'

M. Lorenz← B. Böckle

65'

J. Grodowski← J. ter Horst

70'

Oscar Schönfelder

71'

Thomas Kok

76'

R. Ziegele← O. Schönfelder

87'

E. Hottmann← A. Diawusie

90+2'

D. Kother↳ C. Viet

90+6'

S. Scherder↳ G. Wegkamp

Jahn4-2-3-1

Preussen3-5-2

23

Batmaz

25

A

Wegkamp

3

▼

Böckle

7

Kyerewaa

32

Bazzoli

26

▼

Mrowca

27

▼

Horst

15

⚽

6

24

40

1

3

▼

4

16

11

8

▼

Geipl

5

Bulić

7

▼

Schönfeld

10

A

Viet

27

⚽2

Kother

20

▼

Ganaus

Manager: J. Enochs

61'▲E. Huth←▼N. Ganaus

62'▲T. Eisenhuth←▼A. Geipl

62'▲A. Diawusie←▼B. Hein

76'▲R. Ziegele←▼O. Schönfelder

87'▲E. Hottmann←▼A. Diawusie

Jahn Regensburg substitutes

29Huth21Eisenhuth24Diawusie14Ziegele9Hottmann32Weidinger13Bittroff23Graf22Eichinger

Manager: S. Hildmann

12'▲Y. Bouchama←▼S. Mrowca

65'▲M. Lorenz←▼B. Böckle

65'▲J. Grodowski←▼J. ter Horst

Preussen Munster substitutes

5Bouchama18Lorenz9Grodowski10Oubeyapwa11Deters8Ghindovean31Schabbing42Hahn21Preißinger