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Preußen Münster vs Kickers Emden — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Preußen Münster
Preußen Münster
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Kickers Emden
Kickers Emden
M. Batmaz 59'
T. Deters 52'
J. Mees 45'
T. Steffens 80'
D. Schiller 44'
7/3/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3WEICON Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Preußen Münster63%
×Draw17%
Kickers Emden20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preußen Münster
2.81
Kickers Emden
1.56

Preußen Münster creates 80% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Preußen Münster
2.83
Kickers Emden
1.80

allows per match

Preußen Münster
1.33
Kickers Emden
2.80

finishing

Preußen Münster+0.00on par
Kickers Emden+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster ↓

Kickers Emden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Preußen Münster or draw
80%
Preußen Münster or Kickers Emden
83%
Draw or Kickers Emden
37%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster wins by 2+
43%
Kickers Emden wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Preußen Münster 1+ goals
94%
Preußen Münster 2+ goals
76%
Preußen Münster 3+ goals
52%
Kickers Emden 1+ goals
79%
Kickers Emden 2+ goals
46%
Kickers Emden 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster (draw refunded)
76%
Kickers Emden (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Kickers Emden away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster attack 2.83 + Kickers Emden defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.81

Kickers Emden attack 1.80 + Preußen Münster defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Preußen Münster scores more
63%
level
17%
Kickers Emden scores more
20%

Preußen Münster at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Preußen Münster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
D. Schiller
45'
J. Mees
52'
T. Deters
59'
M. Batmaz
80'
T. Steffens

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Preußen Münster vs Kickers Emden

Preußen Münster beat Kickers Emden 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 3, 2024.

Goals: D. Schiller (44'), J. Mees (45'), T. Deters (52'), M. Batmaz (59'), T. Steffens (80').

The match was played at WEICON Park in Münster.