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Kickers Emden vs Preußen Münster — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Kickers Emden
Kickers Emden
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 1
Preußen Münster
Preußen Münster
7/10/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kickers Emden15%
×Draw17%
Preußen Münster67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kickers Emden
1.14
Preußen Münster
2.55

Preußen Münster creates 124% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Kickers Emden
1.17
Preußen Münster
2.11

allows per match

Kickers Emden
3.00
Preußen Münster
1.11

finishing

Kickers Emden+0.00on par
Preußen Münster+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kickers Emden ↓

Preußen Münster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Kickers Emden or draw
33%
Kickers Emden or Preußen Münster
83%
Draw or Preußen Münster
85%

Winning margin

Kickers Emden wins by 2+
6%
Preußen Münster wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Kickers Emden 1+ goals
68%
Kickers Emden 2+ goals
32%
Kickers Emden 3+ goals
11%
Preußen Münster 1+ goals
92%
Preußen Münster 2+ goals
72%
Preußen Münster 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Kickers Emden (draw refunded)
18%
Preußen Münster (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kickers Emden at home — creates 1.17, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Preußen Münster away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kickers Emden attack 1.17 + Preußen Münster defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Preußen Münster attack 2.11 + Kickers Emden defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Kickers Emden scores more
15%
level
17%
Preußen Münster scores more
67%

Preußen Münster at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Preußen Münster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Kickers
Preußen
S. Emmerling
Manager: S. Emmerling
Kieran Schulze-Marmeling
Manager: Kieran Schulze-Marmeling

Match Recap: Kickers Emden vs Preußen Münster

Preußen Münster beat Kickers Emden 5-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 10, 2026.