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Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Preußen Münster
Preußen Münster
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Fortuna Düsseldorf
9/14/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 5Preussenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Preußen Münster36%
×Draw26%
Fortuna Düsseldorf38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preußen Münster
1.27
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 102 away

creates per match

Preußen Münster
1.15
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.38

allows per match

Preußen Münster
1.26
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.39

finishing

Preußen Münster+0.00on par
Fortuna Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Preußen Münster or draw
62%
Preußen Münster or Fortuna Düsseldorf
74%
Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf
64%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster wins by 2+
15%
Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Preußen Münster 1+ goals
72%
Preußen Münster 2+ goals
36%
Preußen Münster 3+ goals
14%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals
73%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals
38%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster (draw refunded)
48%
Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.39 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.27

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.38 + Preußen Münster defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Preußen Münster scores more
36%
level
26%
Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more
38%

Fortuna Düsseldorf at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Preußen Münster 1–2 Fortuna Düsseldorf

Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Preußen Münster 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Preussenstadion in Munster.