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Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Preußen Münster — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Fortuna Düsseldorf
Fortuna Düsseldorf
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Preußen Münster
Preußen Münster
4/5/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 28Merkur Spiel-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf50%
×Draw23%
Preußen Münster26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.78
Preußen Münster
1.23

Fortuna Düsseldorf creates 45% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 34 away

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.77
Preußen Münster
1.15

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.31
Preußen Münster
1.79

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf+0.00on par
Preußen Münster+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf ↓

Preußen Münster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw
74%
Fortuna Düsseldorf or Preußen Münster
77%
Draw or Preußen Münster
50%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+
28%
Preußen Münster wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals
83%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals
53%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals
26%
Preußen Münster 1+ goals
71%
Preußen Münster 2+ goals
35%
Preußen Münster 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
65%
Preußen Münster (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.31 · 102 matches

Preußen Münster away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.77 + Preußen Münster defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.78

Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more
50%
level
23%
Preußen Münster scores more
26%

Fortuna Düsseldorf at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Preußen Münster

Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Preußen Münster 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Merkur Spiel-Arena in Düsseldorf.