Preußen Münster U19 3–1 Rot-Weiss Essen U19

Preußen Münster U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

A. Weber 69'

M. Schröder 55', 12'

T. Kesim 63' (pen)

10/2/2021

U19 Bundesliga · West - 4Preußen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Preußen Münster U1952%

×Draw22%

Rot-Weiss Essen U1926%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preußen Münster U19Expected goals in this matchRot-Weiss Essen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.39

Preußen Münster U19

2.04

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.39

Preußen Münster U19 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 54 away

1.66

creates per match

0.96

1.81

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Preußen Münster U19

1.66

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

0.96

allows per match

Preußen Münster U19

1.81

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster U19 ↓

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Preußen Münster U19 or draw

74%

Preußen Münster U19 or Rot-Weiss Essen U19

78%

Draw or Rot-Weiss Essen U19

48%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+

31%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals

87%

Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals

60%

Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals

33%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals

75%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals

40%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster U19 at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.81 · 59 matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.43 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.66 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.04

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 0.96 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Preußen Münster U19 scores more

52%

level

22%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more

26%

Preußen Münster U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Preußen Münster U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

M. Schröder

55'

A. Sen← V. Cetin

55'

M. Schröder

60'

A. Weber← S. Sarrafyar

63'

T. KesimPenalty

68'

J. Ihekwoaba← J. Kowalski

69'

A. Weber

75'

P. Wiemer← M. Schröder

80'

F. Hinterding← M. Keute

84'

A. Osmani← L. Kryeziu

84'

T. Kuhlmann← C. Demircan

88'

S. Kaba← D. Bindemann

Preußen

Rot-Weiss

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Schröder

▼

Bindemann

Wensing

Manager: A. Barez

60'▲A. Weber←▼S. Sarrafyar

75'▲P. Wiemer←▼M. Schröder

80'▲F. Hinterding←▼M. Keute

88'▲S. Kaba←▼D. Bindemann

Preußen Münster U19 substitutes

WeberWiemerHinterdingKabaDybiecHardensettHemsing

Manager: V. Wagner

55'▲A. Sen←▼V. Cetin

68'▲J. Ihekwoaba←▼J. Kowalski

84'▲A. Osmani←▼L. Kryeziu

84'▲T. Kuhlmann←▼C. Demircan

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 substitutes

SenIhekwoabaOsmaniKuhlmannMohammedBrandesKarkar

U19 Bundesliga: Preußen Münster U19 3–1 Rot-Weiss Essen U19

Preußen Münster U19 beat Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on October 2, 2021.

Goals: M. Schröder (12', 55'), T. Kesim (63' pen), A. Weber (69').

The match was played at Preußen-Stadion in Münster.

Preußen Münster U19 vs Rot-Weiss Essen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Preußen Münster U19 3–1 Rot-Weiss Essen U19