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Preußen Münster U19 vs Paderborn U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Preußen Münster U19
Preußen Münster U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Paderborn U19
Paderborn U19
M. Runte 54'
Pedro Restrepo Naranjo 30' (OG)
L. Eickel 36'
N. Stacziwa 6'
9/21/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 7Sportpark Berg Fidel Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Preußen Münster U1934%
×Draw22%
Paderborn U1944%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preußen Münster U19
1.70
Paderborn U19
1.97

Paderborn U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 60 away

creates per match

Preußen Münster U19
1.63
Paderborn U19
2.15

allows per match

Preußen Münster U19
1.79
Paderborn U19
1.77

finishing

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par
Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster U19 ↓

Paderborn U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Preußen Münster U19 or draw
56%
Preußen Münster U19 or Paderborn U19
78%
Draw or Paderborn U19
66%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+
17%
Paderborn U19 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals
82%
Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals
51%
Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals
24%
Paderborn U19 1+ goals
86%
Paderborn U19 2+ goals
58%
Paderborn U19 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)
43%
Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.79 · 63 matches

Paderborn U19 away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.63 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.70

Paderborn U19 attack 2.15 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Preußen Münster U19 scores more
34%
level
22%
Paderborn U19 scores more
44%

Paderborn U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Paderborn U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
N. Stacziwa
30'
Pedro Restrepo NaranjoOwn goal
36'
L. Eickel
54'
M. Runte
Preußen
Paderborn
J. Hötting
Manager: J. Hötting
I. Kalkan
Manager: I. Kalkan

Preußen Münster U19 2 – 2 Paderborn U19

Preußen Münster U19 and Paderborn U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on September 21, 2025.

Goals: N. Stacziwa (6'), Pedro Restrepo Naranjo (30' o.g.), L. Eickel (36'), M. Runte (54').

The match was played at Sportpark Berg Fidel Platz 1 in Münster.