Paderborn U19 5–1 Preußen Münster U19

Paderborn U19

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Preußen Münster U19

Z. Plavčić 76', 25', 4'

M. Schulz 68'

G. Pollio 43'

B. Fallbrock 86'

3/11/2023

U19 Bundesliga · West - 15Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Paderborn U1953%

×Draw21%

Preußen Münster U1926%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paderborn U19Expected goals in this matchPreußen Münster U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.48

Paderborn U19

2.15

Preußen Münster U19

1.48

Paderborn U19 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 60 away

2.34

creates per match

1.65

1.32

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Paderborn U19

2.34

Preußen Münster U19

1.65

allows per match

Paderborn U19

1.32

Preußen Münster U19

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn U19 ↓

Preußen Münster U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Paderborn U19 or draw

74%

Paderborn U19 or Preußen Münster U19

79%

Draw or Preußen Münster U19

47%

Winning margin

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+

31%

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Paderborn U19 1+ goals

88%

Paderborn U19 2+ goals

63%

Paderborn U19 3+ goals

36%

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals

77%

Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals

43%

Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn U19 at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

Preußen Münster U19 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.97 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn U19 attack 2.34 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.15

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.65 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Paderborn U19 scores more

53%

level

21%

Preußen Münster U19 scores more

26%

Paderborn U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Paderborn U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

0'

4'

Z. Plavčić

25'

Z. Plavčić

41'

T. Brinkjost← L. Delli Liuni

43'

G. Pollio

58'

A. Hoti← J. Ticha

58'

B. Matteo Wolf← J. Häusler

58'

M. Pehlivan← D. Tchadjobo

61'

N. Mrosek← J. Zambrano

61'

P. Kohlstädt← A. Marino

68'

M. Schulz

69'

B. Fallbrock← M. Bena

69'

K. Katkó← T. Hausotter

76'

Z. Plavčić

79'

E. Delifer← G. Pollio

79'

E. Kerner← M. Schulz

86'

B. Fallbrock

Paderborn

Preußen

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽3

Manager: D. Schmitt

41'▲T. Brinkjost←▼L. Delli Liuni

61'▲N. Mrosek←▼J. Zambrano

61'▲P. Kohlstädt←▼A. Marino

79'▲E. Delifer←▼G. Pollio

79'▲E. Kerner←▼M. Schulz

Paderborn U19 substitutes

BrinkjostMrosekKohlstädtDeliferKernerWillekeKoz

Manager: T. Harink

58'▲A. Hoti←▼J. Ticha

58'▲B. Matteo Wolf←▼J. Häusler

58'▲M. Pehlivan←▼D. Tchadjobo

69'▲B. Fallbrock←▼M. Bena

69'▲K. Katkó←▼T. Hausotter

Preußen Münster U19 substitutes

HotiWolfPehlivanFallbrockKatkóKruphölterAlter

U19 Bundesliga: Paderborn U19 5–1 Preußen Münster U19

Paderborn U19 beat Preußen Münster U19 5-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 11, 2023.

Goals: Z. Plavčić (4', 25', 76'), G. Pollio (43'), M. Schulz (68'), B. Fallbrock (86').

The match was played at Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 3 in Paderborn.

Paderborn U19 vs Preußen Münster U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Paderborn U19 5–1 Preußen Münster U19