Preußen Münster U19 1–4 MSV Duisburg U19

Preußen Münster U19

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

MSV Duisburg U19

M. Demirhan 72'

M. Berrahou 87'

D. Youmssi 41', 33'

M. Völker 6' (OG)

8/25/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 5Sportpark Berg Fidel Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Preußen Münster U1942%

×Draw23%

MSV Duisburg U1935%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preußen Münster U19Expected goals in this matchMSV Duisburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.59

Preußen Münster U19

1.75

MSV Duisburg U19

1.59

Preußen Münster U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 68 away

1.63

creates per match

1.40

1.79

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Preußen Münster U19

1.63

MSV Duisburg U19

1.40

allows per match

Preußen Münster U19

1.79

MSV Duisburg U19

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

MSV Duisburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster U19 ↓

MSV Duisburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Preußen Münster U19 or draw

65%

Preußen Münster U19 or MSV Duisburg U19

77%

Draw or MSV Duisburg U19

58%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+

22%

MSV Duisburg U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals

83%

Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals

52%

Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals

25%

MSV Duisburg U19 1+ goals

80%

MSV Duisburg U19 2+ goals

47%

MSV Duisburg U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)

54%

MSV Duisburg U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.79 · 63 matches

MSV Duisburg U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.88 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.63 + MSV Duisburg U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.75

MSV Duisburg U19 attack 1.40 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Preußen Münster U19 scores more

42%

level

23%

MSV Duisburg U19 scores more

35%

Preußen Münster U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Preußen Münster U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

M. VölkerOwn goal

33'

D. Youmssi

41'

D. Youmssi

44'

D. Sahin← F. Noack

46'

A. Friedrich← L. Krimphoff

49'

B. Maßmann← F. Meurer

61'

D. Truckenbrod← J. Zimmermann

69'

L. Gashi← G. Sadlek

69'

M. Özgen← S. Barnes

72'

M. Demirhan

80'

M. Bertram← M. Völker

87'

N. Slavytskyi← M. Berrahou

87'

M. Berrahou

88'

Preußen

MSV

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: J. Hötting

44'▲D. Sahin←▼F. Noack

46'▲A. Friedrich←▼L. Krimphoff

61'▲D. Truckenbrod←▼J. Zimmermann

80'▲M. Bertram←▼M. Völker

Preußen Münster U19 substitutes

SahinFriedrichTruckenbrodBertramSchürkmannÖzcanMehnert

Manager: M. Jahn

49'▲B. Maßmann←▼F. Meurer

69'▲L. Gashi←▼G. Sadlek

69'▲M. Özgen←▼S. Barnes

87'▲N. Slavytskyi←▼M. Berrahou

MSV Duisburg U19 substitutes

MaßmannGashiÖzgenSlavytskyiÖztürkJennissenDurmus