MSV Duisburg U19 1–1 Preußen Münster U19

MSV Duisburg U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Preußen Münster U19

M. Özgen 47'

M. Scharlau 27'

11/23/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 12BSA Westender Kunstrasen Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

MSV Duisburg U1944%

×Draw23%

Preußen Münster U1933%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MSV Duisburg U19Expected goals in this matchPreußen Münster U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.54

MSV Duisburg U19

1.79

Preußen Münster U19

1.54

MSV Duisburg U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 62 away

1.57

creates per match

1.63

1.46

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

MSV Duisburg U19

1.57

Preußen Münster U19

1.63

allows per match

MSV Duisburg U19

1.46

Preußen Münster U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MSV Duisburg U19+0.00on par

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Duisburg U19 ↓

Preußen Münster U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

MSV Duisburg U19 or draw

67%

MSV Duisburg U19 or Preußen Münster U19

77%

Draw or Preußen Münster U19

56%

Winning margin

MSV Duisburg U19 wins by 2+

23%

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

MSV Duisburg U19 1+ goals

83%

MSV Duisburg U19 2+ goals

53%

MSV Duisburg U19 3+ goals

26%

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals

79%

Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals

45%

Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

MSV Duisburg U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Duisburg U19 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Preußen Münster U19 away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Duisburg U19 attack 1.57 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.63 + MSV Duisburg U19 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

MSV Duisburg U19 scores more

44%

level

23%

Preußen Münster U19 scores more

33%

MSV Duisburg U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "MSV Duisburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

M. Scharlau

46'

L. Gashi← T. Croonen

46'

M. Özgen← A. Öztürk

46'

M. Pavlović← S. Barnes

46'

N. Slavytskyi← M. Berrahou

47'

M. Özgen

57'

D. Sahin← L. Blackmann

77'

D. Truckenbrod← Y. Blaszyk

77'

M. Bertram← L. Krimphoff

MSV

Preußen

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Jahn

46'▲L. Gashi←▼T. Croonen

46'▲M. Özgen←▼A. Öztürk

46'▲M. Pavlović←▼S. Barnes

46'▲N. Slavytskyi←▼M. Berrahou

MSV Duisburg U19 substitutes

GashiÖzgenPavlovićSlavytskyiFrederikKönigDurmus

Manager: J. Hötting

57'▲D. Sahin←▼L. Blackmann

77'▲D. Truckenbrod←▼Y. Blaszyk

77'▲M. Bertram←▼L. Krimphoff

Preußen Münster U19 substitutes

SahinTruckenbrodBertramSchürkmannBreuersMehnertAhmedi