Preußen Münster U19 2–3 Meerbusch U19

Preußen Münster U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Meerbusch U19

T. Mehnert 90+3'

L. Schroer 54' (pen)

Y. El Kandri 90+2'

I. Özel 22', 14'

5/17/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 14Sportpark Berg Fidel Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Preußen Münster U1949%

×Draw22%

Meerbusch U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preußen Münster U19Expected goals in this matchMeerbusch U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.46

Preußen Münster U19

1.96

Meerbusch U19

1.46

Preußen Münster U19 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 14 away

1.63

creates per match

1.14

1.79

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Preußen Münster U19

1.63

Meerbusch U19

1.14

allows per match

Preußen Münster U19

1.79

Meerbusch U19

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Meerbusch U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster U19 ↓

Meerbusch U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Preußen Münster U19 or draw

71%

Preußen Münster U19 or Meerbusch U19

78%

Draw or Meerbusch U19

51%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+

28%

Meerbusch U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals

86%

Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals

58%

Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals

31%

Meerbusch U19 1+ goals

77%

Meerbusch U19 2+ goals

43%

Meerbusch U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Meerbusch U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.79 · 63 matches

Meerbusch U19 away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.63 + Meerbusch U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.96

Meerbusch U19 attack 1.14 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Preußen Münster U19 scores more

49%

level

22%

Meerbusch U19 scores more

29%

Preußen Münster U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Preußen Münster U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

I. Özel

22'

I. Özel

30'

J. Schlotter← C. Venos

35'

V. Ahmedi← C. Schürkmann

46'

L. Blackmann← D. Sahin

46'

M. Ume← L. Lahi

46'

T. Behle← F. Breuer

54'

L. SchroerPenalty

60'

T. Mehnert← B. Leiter

73'

D. Aserov← B. Gebes

76'

M. Bertram← Y. Blaszyk

76'

V. Uka← L. Dekarski

86'

K. Schmitz← J. Karakis

90+2'

Y. El Kandri

90+3'

T. Mehnert

Preußen

Meerbusch

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Hötting

35'▲V. Ahmedi←▼C. Schürkmann

46'▲L. Blackmann←▼D. Sahin

60'▲T. Mehnert←▼B. Leiter

76'▲M. Bertram←▼Y. Blaszyk

76'▲V. Uka←▼L. Dekarski

Preußen Münster U19 substitutes

AhmediBlackmannMehnertBertramUkaÖzcanBreuers

Manager: M. Roch

30'▲J. Schlotter←▼C. Venos

46'▲M. Ume←▼L. Lahi

46'▲T. Behle←▼F. Breuer

73'▲D. Aserov←▼B. Gebes

86'▲K. Schmitz←▼J. Karakis

Meerbusch U19 substitutes

SchlotterUmeBehleAserovSchmitz

U19 Bundesliga: Preußen Münster U19 2–3 Meerbusch U19

Meerbusch U19 beat Preußen Münster U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on May 17, 2025.

Goals: I. Özel (14', 22'), L. Schroer (54' pen), Y. El Kandri (90+2'), T. Mehnert (90+3').

The match was played at Sportpark Berg Fidel Platz 1 in Münster.

Preußen Münster U19 vs Meerbusch U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Preußen Münster U19 2–3 Meerbusch U19