Meerbusch U19 1–4 Preußen Münster U19

Meerbusch U19

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Preußen Münster U19

D. Gyamfi 27'

M. Demirhan 82', 54', 3'

A. Friedrich 52'

8/4/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 1Rasenplatz Lank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Meerbusch U1927%

×Draw20%

Preußen Münster U1953%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meerbusch U19Expected goals in this matchPreußen Münster U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

2.29

Meerbusch U19

1.61

Preußen Münster U19

2.29

Preußen Münster U19 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 61 away

1.21

creates per match

1.66

2.93

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Meerbusch U19

1.21

Preußen Münster U19

1.66

allows per match

Meerbusch U19

2.93

Preußen Münster U19

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meerbusch U19+0.00on par

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meerbusch U19 ↓

Preußen Münster U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Meerbusch U19 or draw

47%

Meerbusch U19 or Preußen Münster U19

80%

Draw or Preußen Münster U19

73%

Winning margin

Meerbusch U19 wins by 2+

13%

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Meerbusch U19 1+ goals

80%

Meerbusch U19 2+ goals

48%

Meerbusch U19 3+ goals

22%

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals

90%

Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals

66%

Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Meerbusch U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meerbusch U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.93 · 14 matches

Preußen Münster U19 away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.02 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meerbusch U19 attack 1.21 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.61

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.66 + Meerbusch U19 defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Meerbusch U19 scores more

27%

level

20%

Preußen Münster U19 scores more

53%

Preußen Münster U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Preußen Münster U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

27'

52'

54'

55'

57'

L. Krimphoff← J. Zimmermann

57'

T. Höfling← A. Friedrich

60'

Y. El Kandri← S. Savicevic

60'

Y. Zeller← N. Gergorec

73'

C. Zaunbrecher← E. Acikgöz

73'

J. Karakis← D. Gyamfi

81'

T. Mehnert← Y. Blaszyk

82'

M. Demirhan

85'

A. Nattefort← M. Völker

85'

F. Noack← N. Varelmann

85'

V. Ahmedi← L. Blackmann

Meerbusch

Preußen

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Gyamfi

Manager: D. Granata

55'▲C. Venos←▼D. Aserov

60'▲Y. El Kandri←▼S. Savicevic

60'▲Y. Zeller←▼N. Gergorec

73'▲C. Zaunbrecher←▼E. Acikgöz

73'▲J. Karakis←▼D. Gyamfi

Meerbusch U19 substitutes

VenosKandriZellerZaunbrecherKarakisVarzandehMischtal

Manager: J. Hötting

57'▲L. Krimphoff←▼J. Zimmermann

57'▲T. Höfling←▼A. Friedrich

81'▲T. Mehnert←▼Y. Blaszyk

85'▲A. Nattefort←▼M. Völker

85'▲F. Noack←▼N. Varelmann

85'▲V. Ahmedi←▼L. Blackmann

Preußen Münster U19 substitutes

KrimphoffHöflingMehnertNattefortNoackAhmediBreuers