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Preußen Münster U19 vs Köln U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Preußen Münster U19
Preußen Münster U19
CANC
11:00
Köln U19
Köln U19
4/10/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 16Preußen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Preußen Münster U1927%
×Draw22%
Köln U1951%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preußen Münster U19
1.40
Köln U19
1.98

Köln U19 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 71 away

creates per match

Preußen Münster U19
1.66
Köln U19
2.15

allows per match

Preußen Münster U19
1.81
Köln U19
1.14

finishing

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par
Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster U19 ↓

Köln U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Preußen Münster U19 or draw
49%
Preußen Münster U19 or Köln U19
78%
Draw or Köln U19
73%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+
12%
Köln U19 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals
75%
Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals
41%
Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals
17%
Köln U19 1+ goals
86%
Köln U19 2+ goals
59%
Köln U19 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)
35%
Köln U19 (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster U19 at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.81 · 59 matches

Köln U19 away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.14 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.66 + Köln U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.40

Köln U19 attack 2.15 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Preußen Münster U19 scores more
27%
level
22%
Köln U19 scores more
51%

Köln U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Preußen Münster U19 host Köln U19

April 10, 2021: Preußen Münster U19 take on Köln U19 in U19 Bundesliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Preußen Münster U19 host Köln U19 at Preußen-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.