Köln U19 0–2 Preußen Münster U19: Result & Stats

Köln U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Preußen Münster U19

P. Wiemer 60'

D. Bindemann 14'

2/12/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 11Franz-Kremer-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Köln U1959%

×Draw20%

Preußen Münster U1921%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Köln U19Expected goals in this matchPreußen Münster U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.27

Köln U19

2.23

Preußen Münster U19

1.27

Köln U19 creates 76% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 60 away

2.49

creates per match

1.65

0.90

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Köln U19

2.49

Preußen Münster U19

1.65

allows per match

Köln U19

0.90

Preußen Münster U19

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Köln U19+0.00on par

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köln U19 ↓

Preußen Münster U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Köln U19 or draw

79%

Köln U19 or Preußen Münster U19

80%

Draw or Preußen Münster U19

41%

Winning margin

Köln U19 wins by 2+

37%

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Köln U19 1+ goals

89%

Köln U19 2+ goals

65%

Köln U19 3+ goals

38%

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals

72%

Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals

36%

Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Köln U19 (draw refunded)

74%

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köln U19 at home — creates 2.49, concedes 0.90 · 71 matches

Preußen Münster U19 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.97 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köln U19 attack 2.49 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.23

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.65 + Köln U19 defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Köln U19 scores more

59%

level

20%

Preußen Münster U19 scores more

21%

Köln U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

D. Bindemann

58'

S. Becker← D. Tchadjobo

60'

P. Wiemer

70'

L. Simnica← W. Suchanek

76'

N. Urso← V. Fadeev

76'

R. Aigbekaen← D. Downs

78'

T. Hemsing← P. Wiemer

82'

M. Finkgräfe← B. Decker

82'

F. Hinterding← O. Overhoff

90+1'

S. Kaba← D. Bindemann

Köln

Preußen

▼

⚽

▼

Wiemer

Sarrafyar

▼

Tchadjobo

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Ruthenbeck

70'▲L. Simnica←▼W. Suchanek

76'▲N. Urso←▼V. Fadeev

76'▲R. Aigbekaen←▼D. Downs

82'▲M. Finkgräfe←▼B. Decker

Köln U19 substitutes

SimnicaUrsoAigbekaenFinkgräfeKettigAmaniampongDreier

Manager: A. Barez

58'▲S. Becker←▼D. Tchadjobo

78'▲T. Hemsing←▼P. Wiemer

82'▲F. Hinterding←▼O. Overhoff

90+1'▲S. Kaba←▼D. Bindemann

Preußen Münster U19 substitutes

BeckerHemsingHinterdingKabaDybiecAlter

Match Recap: Köln U19 vs Preußen Münster U19

Preußen Münster U19 beat Köln U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 12, 2022.

Goals: D. Bindemann (14'), P. Wiemer (60').

The match was played at Franz-Kremer-Stadion in Köln.

Köln U19 vs Preußen Münster U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Köln U19 vs Preußen Münster U19