Preußen Münster U19 4–0 Fortuna Köln U19

Preußen Münster U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Fortuna Köln U19

M. Cakmakci 90'

C. Akono 53', 42'

J. Steinkötter 45'

12/3/2017

U19 Bundesliga · West - 14Jugendstadion am Preußenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Preußen Münster U1955%

×Draw21%

Fortuna Köln U1924%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preußen Münster U19Expected goals in this matchFortuna Köln U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.29

Preußen Münster U19

2.06

Fortuna Köln U19

1.29

Preußen Münster U19 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 28 away

1.63

creates per match

0.79

1.79

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Preußen Münster U19

1.63

Fortuna Köln U19

0.79

allows per match

Preußen Münster U19

1.79

Fortuna Köln U19

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Fortuna Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster U19 ↓

Fortuna Köln U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Preußen Münster U19 or draw

76%

Preußen Münster U19 or Fortuna Köln U19

79%

Draw or Fortuna Köln U19

45%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+

33%

Fortuna Köln U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals

87%

Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals

61%

Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals

34%

Fortuna Köln U19 1+ goals

72%

Fortuna Köln U19 2+ goals

37%

Fortuna Köln U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Fortuna Köln U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.79 · 63 matches

Fortuna Köln U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.63 + Fortuna Köln U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.06

Fortuna Köln U19 attack 0.79 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Preußen Münster U19 scores more

55%

level

21%

Fortuna Köln U19 scores more

24%

Preußen Münster U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Preußen Münster U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

C. Akono

45'

J. Steinkötter

46'

R. Jemili← W. Kametas

46'

A. Crüchten← Juan Alvarez

53'

C. Akono

61'

A. Sürü← H. Akcakaya

64'

M. Cakmakci← A. Knüver

73'

S. Guirhil← J. Stroker

75'

82'

82'

90'

Preußen

Fortuna

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

Akono

Manager: C. Tasdelen

64'▲M. Cakmakci←▼A. Knüver

73'▲S. Guirhil←▼J. Stroker

82'▲H. Düzgün←▼C. Akono

82'▲J. Niehues←▼J. Polm

Preußen Münster U19 substitutes

CakmakciGuirhilDüzgünNiehuesStummerHonselTouray

Manager: P. Walocha

46'▲R. Jemili←▼W. Kametas

46'▲A. Crüchten←▼Juan Alvarez

61'▲A. Sürü←▼H. Akcakaya

75'▲E. Özen←▼J. Thoben

Fortuna Köln U19 substitutes

JemiliCrüchtenSürüÖzenLandwehrCicekPelzer

U19 Bundesliga: Preußen Münster U19 4–0 Fortuna Köln U19

Preußen Münster U19 beat Fortuna Köln U19 4-0 in U19 Bundesliga on December 3, 2017.

Goals: C. Akono (42', 53'), J. Steinkötter (45'), M. Cakmakci (90').

The match was played at Jugendstadion am Preußenstadion in Münster.

Preußen Münster U19 vs Fortuna Köln U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Preußen Münster U19 4–0 Fortuna Köln U19