Fortuna Köln U19 0–3 Preußen Münster U19

Fortuna Köln U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Preußen Münster U19

N. Selutin 86', 67'

R. Schoch 84' (OG)

10/25/2020

U19 Bundesliga · West - 4Bezirkssportanlage Chorweiler

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Fortuna Köln U1928%

×Draw20%

Preußen Münster U1952%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Köln U19Expected goals in this matchPreußen Münster U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

2.29

Fortuna Köln U19

1.67

Preußen Münster U19

2.29

Preußen Münster U19 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 60 away

1.36

creates per match

1.65

2.93

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Fortuna Köln U19

1.36

Preußen Münster U19

1.65

allows per match

Fortuna Köln U19

2.93

Preußen Münster U19

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Köln U19+0.00on par

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln U19 ↓

Preußen Münster U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln U19 or draw

48%

Fortuna Köln U19 or Preußen Münster U19

80%

Draw or Preußen Münster U19

72%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln U19 wins by 2+

13%

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln U19 1+ goals

81%

Fortuna Köln U19 2+ goals

50%

Fortuna Köln U19 3+ goals

23%

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals

90%

Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals

66%

Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln U19 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.93 · 28 matches

Preußen Münster U19 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.97 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln U19 attack 1.36 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.67

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.65 + Fortuna Köln U19 defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fortuna Köln U19 scores more

28%

level

20%

Preußen Münster U19 scores more

52%

Preußen Münster U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Preußen Münster U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

N. Selutin← J. Sinev

60'

E. Öztürk← J. Schmitz

67'

N. Selutin

70'

O. Calis← N. Westerhoff

77'

D. Markovski← A. Paenda

79'

F. Bauens← A. Maloku

83'

T. Giesen← L. Kelp

84'

R. SchochOwn goal

86'

N. Selutin

88'

T. Hemsing← M. Benjamins

90'

H. Brodner← L. Frieling

Fortuna

Preußen

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Alkan

60'▲E. Öztürk←▼J. Schmitz

70'▲O. Calis←▼N. Westerhoff

79'▲F. Bauens←▼A. Maloku

83'▲T. Giesen←▼L. Kelp

Fortuna Köln U19 substitutes

ÖztürkCalisBauensGiesenKilicPetersSchürmann

Manager: A. Barez

38'▲N. Selutin←▼J. Sinev

77'▲D. Markovski←▼A. Paenda

88'▲T. Hemsing←▼M. Benjamins

90'▲H. Brodner←▼L. Frieling

Preußen Münster U19 substitutes

SelutinMarkovskiHemsingBrodnerHardensettWesbergHaddoudi

U19 Bundesliga: Fortuna Köln U19 0–3 Preußen Münster U19

Preußen Münster U19 beat Fortuna Köln U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on October 25, 2020.

Goals: N. Selutin (67', 86'), R. Schoch (84' o.g.).

The match was played at Bezirkssportanlage Chorweiler in Köln.

Fortuna Köln U19 vs Preußen Münster U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Fortuna Köln U19 0–3 Preußen Münster U19