Preußen Münster U19 2–1 Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19

Preußen Münster U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19

M. Völker 28'

M. Demirhan 23'

L. Eismann 5'

3/15/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 11Sportpark Berg Fidel Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Preußen Münster U1955%

×Draw21%

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preußen Münster U19Expected goals in this matchBlau-Weiß Königsdorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.25

Preußen Münster U19

2.03

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19

1.25

Preußen Münster U19 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 7 away

1.63

creates per match

0.71

1.79

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Preußen Münster U19

1.63

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19

0.71

allows per match

Preußen Münster U19

1.79

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster U19 ↓

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Preußen Münster U19 or draw

77%

Preußen Münster U19 or Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19

79%

Draw or Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19

45%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+

33%

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals

87%

Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals

60%

Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals

33%

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 1+ goals

71%

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 2+ goals

36%

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.79 · 63 matches

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.63 + Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.03

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 attack 0.71 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Preußen Münster U19 scores more

55%

level

21%

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 scores more

23%

Preußen Münster U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Preußen Münster U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

L. Eismann

23'

M. Demirhan

28'

M. Völker

32'

L. Koch← L. Pesch

63'

C. Greis← J. Mvutu

63'

V. Willems← A. Wilhelm

66'

J. Zimmermann← V. Uka

66'

Y. Blaszyk← B. Leiter

85'

D. Sahin← M. Demirhan

85'

A. Vaitsaras← E. Kovanci

85'

N. Kangela← L. Kirnich

88'

C. Schürkmann← T. Höfling

Preußen

Blau-Weiß

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Demirhan

▼

Leiter

Manager: J. Hötting

66'▲J. Zimmermann←▼V. Uka

66'▲Y. Blaszyk←▼B. Leiter

85'▲D. Sahin←▼M. Demirhan

88'▲C. Schürkmann←▼T. Höfling

Preußen Münster U19 substitutes

ZimmermannBlaszykSahinSchürkmannNoackBreuersMehnert

Manager: L. Zampolin

32'▲L. Koch←▼L. Pesch

63'▲C. Greis←▼J. Mvutu

63'▲V. Willems←▼A. Wilhelm

85'▲A. Vaitsaras←▼E. Kovanci

85'▲N. Kangela←▼L. Kirnich

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 substitutes

KochGreisWillemsVaitsarasKangelaKrygiel