Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 4–3 Preußen Münster U19

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Preußen Münster U19

E. Kovanci 66'

L. Eismann 36'

M. Scharlau 12' (OG)

S. Waldvogel 10'

M. Völker 68', 45+1'

Y. Blaszyk 51'

2/22/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 4Sportplatz Königsdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U1935%

×Draw20%

Preußen Münster U1944%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19Expected goals in this matchPreußen Münster U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

2.26

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19

2.01

Preußen Münster U19

2.26

Preußen Münster U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 61 away

2.00

creates per match

1.66

2.86

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19

2.00

Preußen Münster U19

1.66

allows per match

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19

2.86

Preußen Münster U19

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19+0.00on par

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 ↓

Preußen Münster U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 or draw

56%

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 or Preußen Münster U19

80%

Draw or Preußen Münster U19

65%

Winning margin

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 wins by 2+

19%

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 1+ goals

87%

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 2+ goals

59%

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 3+ goals

32%

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals

89%

Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals

66%

Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

Preußen Münster U19 away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.02 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 attack 2.00 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.01

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.66 + Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 scores more

35%

level

20%

Preußen Münster U19 scores more

44%

Preußen Münster U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Preußen Münster U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

S. Waldvogel

12'

M. ScharlauOwn goal

36'

L. Eismann

45+1'

M. Völker

51'

Y. Blaszyk

60'

L. Altreuther← N. Pashko

60'

N. Kangela← J. Mvutu

60'

T. Mehnert← L. Krimphoff

66'

L. Struzyna← M. Schudy

66'

E. Kovanci

68'

M. Bertram← L. Blackmann

68'

M. Völker

77'

A. Wilhelm← L. Kirnich

83'

C. Schürkmann← F. Noack

Blau-Weiß

Preußen

⚽2

▼

▼

🥅

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: L. Zampolin

60'▲L. Altreuther←▼N. Pashko

60'▲N. Kangela←▼J. Mvutu

66'▲L. Struzyna←▼M. Schudy

77'▲A. Wilhelm←▼L. Kirnich

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 substitutes

AltreutherKangelaStruzynaWilhelmVaitsarasLightfootKoch

Manager: J. Hötting

60'▲T. Mehnert←▼L. Krimphoff

68'▲M. Bertram←▼L. Blackmann

83'▲C. Schürkmann←▼F. Noack

Preußen Münster U19 substitutes

MehnertBertramSchürkmannBreuersFilizHöfling

Match Recap: Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 vs Preußen Münster U19

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 beat Preußen Münster U19 4-3 in U19 Bundesliga on February 22, 2025.

Goals: S. Waldvogel (10'), M. Scharlau (12' o.g.), L. Eismann (36'), M. Völker (45+1', 68'), Y. Blaszyk (51'), E. Kovanci (66').

The match was played at Sportplatz Königsdorf in Frechen.

Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 vs Preußen Münster U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Blau-Weiß Königsdorf U19 vs Preußen Münster U19