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Preußen Münster U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Preußen Münster U19
Preußen Münster U19
CANC
10:00
Bayer Leverkusen U19
Bayer Leverkusen U19
1/31/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 10Preußen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Preußen Münster U1929%
×Draw22%
Bayer Leverkusen U1949%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preußen Münster U19
1.50
Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.99

Bayer Leverkusen U19 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 66 away

creates per match

Preußen Münster U19
1.63
Bayer Leverkusen U19
2.18

allows per match

Preußen Münster U19
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.36

finishing

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par
Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster U19 ↓

Bayer Leverkusen U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Preußen Münster U19 or draw
51%
Preußen Münster U19 or Bayer Leverkusen U19
78%
Draw or Bayer Leverkusen U19
71%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+
13%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals
78%
Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals
44%
Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals
19%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals
86%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals
59%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)
37%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.79 · 63 matches

Bayer Leverkusen U19 away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.36 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.63 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.18 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Preußen Münster U19 scores more
29%
level
22%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more
49%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preußen Münster U19 face Bayer Leverkusen U19 (U19 Bundesliga)

U19 Bundesliga returns with Preußen Münster U19 hosting Bayer Leverkusen U19. Match starts January 31, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Preußen Münster U19 host Bayer Leverkusen U19 at Preußen-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.