Bayer Leverkusen U19 0–0 Preußen Münster U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Preußen Münster U19

9/14/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Ovest - 5Jugendleistungszentrum Kurtekotten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Bayer Leverkusen U1956%

×Draw20%

Preußen Münster U1924%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayer Leverkusen U19Expected goals in this matchPreußen Münster U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.46

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.31

Preußen Münster U19

1.46

Bayer Leverkusen U19 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 60 away

2.65

creates per match

1.65

1.26

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19

2.65

Preußen Münster U19

1.65

allows per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.26

Preußen Münster U19

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayer Leverkusen U19 ↓

Preußen Münster U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Bayer Leverkusen U19 or draw

76%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 or Preußen Münster U19

80%

Draw or Preußen Münster U19

44%

Winning margin

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+

35%

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals

90%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals

67%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals

40%

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals

77%

Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals

43%

Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.26 · 66 matches

Preußen Münster U19 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.97 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.65 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.31

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.65 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more

56%

level

20%

Preußen Münster U19 scores more

24%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

J. Sinev← N. Selutin

61'

K. Sarpei← A. Fesenmeyer

78'

T. Sikorski← A. Paenda

82'

E. Probst← M. Mika

Bayer

Preußen

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. von Ahlen

61'▲K. Sarpei←▼A. Fesenmeyer

Bayer Leverkusen U19 substitutes

SarpeiAsrihiStöfflerEickschlägerJohnenDetermannFünger

Manager: A. Barez

28'▲J. Sinev←▼N. Selutin

78'▲T. Sikorski←▼A. Paenda

82'▲E. Probst←▼M. Mika

Preußen Münster U19 substitutes

SinevSikorskiProbstMarkovskiMichalakWesbergLimberg

Match Recap: Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Preußen Münster U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19 and Preußen Münster U19 drew 0-0 in U19 Bundesliga on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Jugendleistungszentrum Kurtekotten in Köln.

Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Preußen Münster U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Preußen Münster U19