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Preußen Münster U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Preußen Münster U19
Preußen Münster U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arminia Bielefeld U19
Arminia Bielefeld U19
11/20/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 12Sportpark Berg Fidel Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Preußen Münster U1943%
×Draw22%
Arminia Bielefeld U1934%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preußen Münster U19
1.84
Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.61

Preußen Münster U19 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 62 away

creates per match

Preußen Münster U19
1.63
Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.44

allows per match

Preußen Münster U19
1.79
Arminia Bielefeld U19
2.06

finishing

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par
Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster U19 ↓

Arminia Bielefeld U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Preußen Münster U19 or draw
66%
Preußen Münster U19 or Arminia Bielefeld U19
78%
Draw or Arminia Bielefeld U19
57%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+
23%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals
84%
Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals
55%
Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals
28%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals
80%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals
48%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)
56%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.79 · 63 matches

Arminia Bielefeld U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.63 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.84

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.44 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Preußen Münster U19 scores more
43%
level
22%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more
34%

Preußen Münster U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Preußen Münster U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Preußen
Arminia
J. Hötting
Manager: J. Hötting
M. Drobe
Manager: M. Drobe

Match Recap: Preußen Münster U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19

Preußen Münster U19 beat Arminia Bielefeld U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on November 20, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Berg Fidel Platz 1 in Münster.