Arminia Bielefeld U19 0–1 Preußen Münster U19

Arminia Bielefeld U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Preußen Münster U19

M. Schröder 55'

12/5/2021

U19 Bundesliga · West - 9Böllhoff Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Arminia Bielefeld U1941%

×Draw22%

Preußen Münster U1936%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arminia Bielefeld U19Expected goals in this matchPreußen Münster U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.67

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.80

Preußen Münster U19

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

1.63

creates per match

1.65

1.68

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.63

Preußen Münster U19

1.65

allows per match

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.68

Preußen Münster U19

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Bielefeld U19 ↓

Preußen Münster U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Arminia Bielefeld U19 or draw

64%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 or Preußen Münster U19

78%

Draw or Preußen Münster U19

59%

Winning margin

Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+

22%

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals

83%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals

54%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals

27%

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals

81%

Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals

50%

Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.68 · 60 matches

Preußen Münster U19 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.97 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.63 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.80

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.65 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more

41%

level

22%

Preußen Münster U19 scores more

36%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

M. Schröder

60'

E. Tirpan← Y. Jerrentrup

65'

A. Amaimouni-Echghouyab← F. Kocaarslan

71'

S. Becker← S. Kaba

77'

P. Pinto← D. Tchadjobo

84'

J. Schade← L. Sikora

87'

H. Brodner← M. Schröder

90+3'

F. Hinterding← S. Becker

Arminia

Preußen

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: F. Fulland

60'▲E. Tirpan←▼Y. Jerrentrup

65'▲A. Amaimouni-Echghouyab←▼F. Kocaarslan

84'▲J. Schade←▼L. Sikora

Arminia Bielefeld U19 substitutes

TirpanAmaimouni-EchghouyabSchadeMillerYilmazMihajlovicKeller

Manager: A. Barez

71'▲S. Becker←▼S. Kaba

77'▲P. Pinto←▼D. Tchadjobo

87'▲H. Brodner←▼M. Schröder

90+3'▲F. Hinterding←▼S. Becker

Preußen Münster U19 substitutes

BeckerPintoBrodnerHinterdingSarrafyarAlterHemsing