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Preußen Münster II vs Hammer SpVg — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Preußen Münster II
Preußen Münster II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Hammer SpVg
Hammer SpVg
4/10/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - Relegation Round - 1Jugendstadion am Preußenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Preußen Münster II63%
×Draw18%
Hammer SpVg18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preußen Münster II
2.46
Hammer SpVg
1.25

Preußen Münster II creates 97% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 19 away

creates per match

Preußen Münster II
2.44
Hammer SpVg
0.95

allows per match

Preußen Münster II
1.54
Hammer SpVg
2.47

finishing

Preußen Münster II+0.00on par
Hammer SpVg+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster II ↓

Hammer SpVg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Preußen Münster II or draw
82%
Preußen Münster II or Hammer SpVg
82%
Draw or Hammer SpVg
37%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster II wins by 2+
42%
Hammer SpVg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Preußen Münster II 1+ goals
91%
Preußen Münster II 2+ goals
70%
Preußen Münster II 3+ goals
44%
Hammer SpVg 1+ goals
71%
Hammer SpVg 2+ goals
36%
Hammer SpVg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster II (draw refunded)
78%
Hammer SpVg (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster II at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.54 · 90 matches

Hammer SpVg away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster II attack 2.44 + Hammer SpVg defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.46

Hammer SpVg attack 0.95 + Preußen Münster II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Preußen Münster II scores more
63%
level
18%
Hammer SpVg scores more
18%

Preußen Münster II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Preußen Münster II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Preußen Münster II 2–2 Hammer SpVg

Preußen Münster II and Hammer SpVg drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Westfalen on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Jugendstadion am Preußenstadion in Münster.