Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hammer SpVg vs Preußen Münster II — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Hammer SpVg
Hammer SpVg
CANC
14:00
Preußen Münster II
Preußen Münster II
10/25/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 1024nexx Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hammer SpVg36%
×Draw22%
Preußen Münster II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammer SpVg
1.68
Preußen Münster II
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 88 away

creates per match

Hammer SpVg
1.84
Preußen Münster II
1.72

allows per match

Hammer SpVg
1.89
Preußen Münster II
1.51

finishing

Hammer SpVg+0.00on par
Preußen Münster II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammer SpVg ↓

Preußen Münster II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Hammer SpVg or draw
59%
Hammer SpVg or Preußen Münster II
78%
Draw or Preußen Münster II
64%

Winning margin

Hammer SpVg wins by 2+
18%
Preußen Münster II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Hammer SpVg 1+ goals
81%
Hammer SpVg 2+ goals
50%
Hammer SpVg 3+ goals
24%
Preußen Münster II 1+ goals
83%
Preußen Münster II 2+ goals
54%
Preußen Münster II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Hammer SpVg (draw refunded)
47%
Preußen Münster II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammer SpVg at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

Preußen Münster II away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.51 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammer SpVg attack 1.84 + Preußen Münster II defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.68

Preußen Münster II attack 1.72 + Hammer SpVg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hammer SpVg scores more
36%
level
22%
Preußen Münster II scores more
41%

Preußen Münster II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Preußen Münster II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hammer SpVg face Preußen Münster II (Oberliga - Westfalen)

Oberliga - Westfalen returns with Hammer SpVg hosting Preußen Münster II. Match starts October 25, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Hammer SpVg host Preußen Münster II at 24nexx Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.