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Preußen Münster II vs Concordia Wiemelhausen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Preußen Münster II
Preußen Münster II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Concordia Wiemelhausen
Concordia Wiemelhausen
I. Lahchaychi 66'
5/25/2025Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 37Sportpark Berg Fidel Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Preußen Münster II68%
×Draw16%
Concordia Wiemelhausen16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preußen Münster II
2.94
Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.41

Preußen Münster II creates 109% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 18 away

creates per match

Preußen Münster II
2.44
Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.28

allows per match

Preußen Münster II
1.54
Concordia Wiemelhausen
3.44

finishing

Preußen Münster II+0.00on par
Concordia Wiemelhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster II ↓

Concordia Wiemelhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Preußen Münster II or draw
84%
Preußen Münster II or Concordia Wiemelhausen
84%
Draw or Concordia Wiemelhausen
32%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster II wins by 2+
48%
Concordia Wiemelhausen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Preußen Münster II 1+ goals
95%
Preußen Münster II 2+ goals
79%
Preußen Münster II 3+ goals
55%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 1+ goals
76%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 2+ goals
41%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster II (draw refunded)
81%
Concordia Wiemelhausen (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster II at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.54 · 90 matches

Concordia Wiemelhausen away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster II attack 2.44 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.94

Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 1.28 + Preußen Münster II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Preußen Münster II scores more
68%
level
16%
Concordia Wiemelhausen scores more
16%

Preußen Münster II at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Preußen Münster II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'
I. Lahchaychi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Preußen Münster II 0–1 Concordia Wiemelhausen

Concordia Wiemelhausen beat Preußen Münster II 1-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on May 25, 2025.

Goals: I. Lahchaychi (66').

The match was played at Sportpark Berg Fidel Platz 1 in Münster.