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Concordia Wiemelhausen vs Preußen Münster II — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Concordia Wiemelhausen
Concordia Wiemelhausen
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Preußen Münster II
Preußen Münster II
Unknown 52'
Unknown 85', 83'
Steinfeldt 67'
12/1/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 18Sportpark Concordia Wiemelhausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Concordia Wiemelhausen33%
×Draw21%
Preußen Münster II46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.78
Preußen Münster II
2.10

Preußen Münster II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 88 away

creates per match

Concordia Wiemelhausen
2.05
Preußen Münster II
1.72

allows per match

Concordia Wiemelhausen
2.47
Preußen Münster II
1.51

finishing

Concordia Wiemelhausen+0.00on par
Preußen Münster II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Wiemelhausen ↓

Preußen Münster II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Concordia Wiemelhausen or draw
54%
Concordia Wiemelhausen or Preußen Münster II
79%
Draw or Preußen Münster II
67%

Winning margin

Concordia Wiemelhausen wins by 2+
17%
Preußen Münster II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Concordia Wiemelhausen 1+ goals
83%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 2+ goals
53%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 3+ goals
26%
Preußen Münster II 1+ goals
88%
Preußen Münster II 2+ goals
62%
Preußen Münster II 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Concordia Wiemelhausen (draw refunded)
42%
Preußen Münster II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Wiemelhausen at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

Preußen Münster II away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.51 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 2.05 + Preußen Münster II defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.78

Preußen Münster II attack 1.72 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Concordia Wiemelhausen scores more
33%
level
21%
Preußen Münster II scores more
46%

Preußen Münster II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Preußen Münster II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'
67'
Steinfeldt
83'
85'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Concordia Wiemelhausen 1–3 Preußen Münster II

Preußen Münster II beat Concordia Wiemelhausen 3-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on December 1, 2024.

Goals: ? (52', 83', 85'), Steinfeldt (67').

The match was played at Sportpark Concordia Wiemelhausen in Bochum.