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Preston vs Rotherham — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rotherham
Rotherham
T. Barkhuizen 40'
M. Smith 55'
10/27/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 15Deepdale Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Preston56%
×Draw25%
Rotherham19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.60
Rotherham
0.82

Preston creates 95% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 12 away

creates per match

Preston
1.14
Rotherham
0.47

allows per match

Preston
1.17
Rotherham
2.06

finishing

Preston+0.07on par
Rotherham-0.05on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Preston or draw
81%
Preston or Rotherham
75%
Draw or Rotherham
44%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
30%
Rotherham wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
80%
Preston 2+ goals
47%
Preston 3+ goals
22%
Rotherham 1+ goals
56%
Rotherham 2+ goals
20%
Rotherham 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
74%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 62 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.06 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + Rotherham defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.60

Rotherham attack 0.47 + Preston defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Preston scores more
56%
level
25%
Rotherham scores more
19%

Preston at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
M. SmithRotherhamRotherham · F
7.5

Match Events

40'
T. Barkhuizen↳ C. Robinson
55'
M. Smith↳ R. Williams
64'
S. Maguire← L. Nmecha
68'
J. Newell← J. Taylor
72'
P. Gallagher← D. Johnson
75'
L. Moult← T. Barkhuizen
76'
J. Proctor← K. Vassell
84'
Richie Towell
85'
R. Manning← R. Williams
90'
Sean Maguire

Possession

55%Preston

Shots

15Preston

Pass accuracy

54%Preston

Statistics

PrestonRotherham
Overview
55%Possession45%
15Total Shots12
8Corners7
8Fouls15
Shots
15Total Shots12
6On Target5
4Off Target3
5Blocked4
6Inside Box6
9Outside Box6
Passing
55%Possession45%
344Total Passes281
226Accurate Passes159
66%Pass Accuracy57%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
8Fouls15
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Championship: Preston 1–1 Rotherham

Preston and Rotherham drew 1-1 in Championship on October 27, 2018.

Goals: T. Barkhuizen (40'), M. Smith (55').

Preston controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at Deepdale Stadium in Preston.