Preston 0–0 Nottingham Forest: Result & Stats

Preston

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nottingham Forest

2/22/2022

Championship · Round 34Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Preston35%

×Draw28%

Nottingham Forest37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.19

Preston

1.16

Nottingham Forest

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 181 home / 95 away

1.29

creates per match

1.16

1.22

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Preston

1.29

Nottingham Forest

1.16

allows per match

Preston

1.22

Nottingham Forest

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preston+0.00on par

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Nottingham Forest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Preston or draw

63%

Preston or Nottingham Forest

72%

Draw or Nottingham Forest

65%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

15%

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

69%

Preston 2+ goals

32%

Preston 3+ goals

11%

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

70%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

33%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

49%

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.22 · 181 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.29 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.16

Nottingham Forest attack 1.16 + Preston defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Preston scores more

35%

level

28%

Nottingham Forest scores more

37%

Nottingham Forest at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

B. Whiteman

Preston · M

8.3

Match Events

45'

Daniel Johnson

53'

J. Earl← P. Bauer

60'

Jack Colback

73'

Scott McKenna

75'

E. Riis← C. Evans

77'

Josh Earl

81'

S. Surridge← K. Davis

90+1'

Benjamin Whiteman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonNottingham

Overview

52%Possession48%

15Total Shots7

11Corners3

10Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots7

4On Target2

9Off Target3

2Blocked2

9Inside Box3

6Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

383Total Passes367

263Accurate Passes239

69%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

6Offsides1