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Preston vs Nottingham Forest — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
J. Stockley 15'
L. Grabban 5' (pen)
7/11/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 43Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Preston35%
×Draw28%
Nottingham Forest37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.16
Nottingham Forest
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 181 home / 95 away

creates per match

Preston
1.29
Nottingham Forest
1.16

allows per match

Preston
1.22
Nottingham Forest
1.03

finishing

Preston+0.00on par
Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Nottingham Forest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Preston or draw
63%
Preston or Nottingham Forest
72%
Draw or Nottingham Forest
65%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
15%
Nottingham Forest wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
69%
Preston 2+ goals
32%
Preston 3+ goals
11%
Nottingham Forest 1+ goals
70%
Nottingham Forest 2+ goals
33%
Nottingham Forest 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
49%
Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.22 · 181 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.29 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.16

Nottingham Forest attack 1.16 + Preston defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Preston scores more
35%
level
28%
Nottingham Forest scores more
37%

Nottingham Forest at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
J. StockleyPrestonPreston · F
7.8

Match Events

5'
L. GrabbanPenalty
15'
J. Stockley↳ B. Potts
16'
Patrick Bauer
44'
J. Storey← B. Davies
46'
R. Ledson← B. Pearson
49'
Andrew Hughes
64'
T. Barkhuizen← S. Sinclair
68'
Tiago Silva← S. Sow
82'
J. Harrop← J. Stockley
82'
A. Mighten← Nuno Da Costa
83'
P. Gallagher← D. Johnson
89'
A. Diakhaby← S. Ameobi

Possession

49%Preston

Shots

15Preston

Pass accuracy

48%Preston

Statistics

PrestonNottingham
Overview
49%Possession51%
15Total Shots8
11Corners2
18Fouls6
Shots
15Total Shots8
2On Target1
6Off Target7
7Blocked0
9Inside Box4
6Outside Box4
Passing
49%Possession51%
342Total Passes371
240Accurate Passes283
70%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
18Fouls6
2Yellow Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Preston vs Nottingham Forest

Preston and Nottingham Forest drew 1-1 in Championship on July 11, 2020.

Goals: L. Grabban (5' pen), J. Stockley (15').

Nottingham Forest controlled possession (51%) and registered 8 shots to 15.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.